Idaho Democrats are quietly questioning whether their own Senate nominee can mount a credible campaign against Republican incumbent Jim Risch, and a key county party is now threatening to back an independent candidate instead.

The Ada County Democratic Party sent a letter on July 8 to David Roth, who won the Democratic primary in May, giving him until August 12 to raise $50,000 and submit a viable campaign plan. If Roth fails to meet those conditions, the county party’s executive committee is considering endorsing Todd Achilles, an independent candidate who would run outside the Democratic Party structure.

A Nominee Who Hasn’t Won Much

Roth’s electoral history gives party leaders reason to worry. He captured roughly 35 percent of the vote in a 2020 state House race, under 29 percent in a 2022 U.S. Senate bid, and 31 percent in a 2024 U.S. House contest. His 2026 primary victory came with fewer than 21,000 votes.

Adding to the concern, Roth’s campaign carried more debt than it had raised when the letter went out. Ada County Democratic Chair Jared DeLoof led the committee to a unanimous vote in favor of sending the ultimatum.

Roth has not signaled any intention to comply. He said he informed DeLoof on June 9 — nearly a month before the letter arrived — that he would not meet the party’s conditions.

The Independent Alternative

The man Ada County Democrats are considering backing instead is Todd Achilles, an Army veteran originally from Oregon who purchased a home in Idaho roughly two decades ago and relocated to the state full-time about a decade back. His background and independent status could, in theory, broaden appeal beyond the Democratic base — though running outside a major party in Idaho carries its own steep challenges.

The Structural Problem for Democrats

The underlying math is brutal for any non-Republican candidate in Idaho. Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by more than five to one — approximately 647,000 GOP voters compared to 121,000 registered Democrats. Another 245,000 unaffiliated voters exist in the state, but even combining those groups leaves a challenger far short of the Republican registration advantage.

Idaho has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1974, when Frank Church won his last term. No Democrat has come close since.

Risch’s Record and Profile

The candidate Democrats or independents would need to defeat is one of Idaho’s most experienced politicians. Risch, now 83, served as Ada County prosecutor, led the state Senate, and briefly held the governorship before winning his U.S. Senate seat in 2008 with nearly 58 percent of the vote. He was re-elected in 2014 with over 65 percent and again in 2020 with more than 62 percent.

Risch is also among the wealthiest members of the Senate, with an estimated net worth of around $55 million, ranking him eleventh among the country’s richest senators. His campaign operation and name recognition dwarf anything the Democratic field has produced this cycle — Risch himself drew fewer than 78,000 votes in the GOP primary, but that figure still far exceeds Roth’s Democratic primary total.

Risch serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has worked with Idaho’s other senator on a range of issues, including backing Interior Department efforts to shift grizzly bear management back to Idaho and other states.

What Comes Next

The August 12 deadline will force the situation into the open. If Roth declines to meet the fundraising and planning benchmarks — which he has already signaled — Ada County Democrats will face a choice: stay with their nominee, endorse Achilles, or remain on the sidelines entirely.

For now, the intra-party dispute highlights a deeper tension in Idaho Democratic politics: whether to field candidates who reflect the party’s base or back figures who might have broader appeal in a state where the Republican electoral dominance is reinforced by every registration figure and election result in recent memory.