Five Takeaways From the 2026 Idaho Republican Primary

Overview

With results still filtering in from rural counties on primary election night, the 2026 Idaho Republican primary produced a series of notable outcomes that will shape the Legislature’s ideological composition heading into the 2027 session. Federal incumbents held firm, the governor’s political network produced mixed results, and a familiar face returned to the State Senate.

Federal Incumbents Hold Ground

U.S. Sen. Jim Risch secured reelection by a wide margin despite three primary challengers, continuing a pattern in which at least a third of Republican primary voters have consistently cast ballots against him regardless of the circumstances. In the House, Idaho’s Republican congressional incumbents fended off primary challenges across both districts. Rep. Russ Fulcher ran ahead of the rest of the delegation in his northern Idaho district, while Rep. Mike Simpson posted his strongest primary percentage in six years — 63.31% — despite persistent and organized opposition in the eastern district.

Gov. Brad Little won reelection but fell short of the 65% threshold some observers anticipated. Challenger Mark Fitzpatrick, running a condensed campaign with limited fundraising, captured nearly 29% of the vote — a performance that outpaced former Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, who campaigned for close to a year and raised substantially more money but finished at approximately 32.2%.

Geographic Polarization Deepens

One of the clearest patterns of the night was the continued geographic sorting of the Idaho Republican Party. Moderate incumbents in the northern Panhandle region were defeated, while conservative challengers in eastern Idaho were unable to unseat incumbent lawmakers. The governor’s political operation succeeded in protecting allies including Rep. Stephanie Mickelsen, Rep. Rick Cheatum, and Sen. Jim Guthrie, but struggled to extend that influence into Canyon County or Panhandle districts.

Rep. Jordan Redman drew scrutiny for contributing his own funds to targeted races in northern Idaho, an investment that may have affected the outcome in at least one contest.

Herndon Returns; Former Legislators Struggle to Come Back

Of roughly nine former legislators who sought to reclaim seats this cycle, only Scott Herndon succeeded. The former state senator defeated Sen. Jim Woodward in Legislative District 1, a rematch in a long-running rivalry — the two have now faced each other in four of the last five primary contests in that district, each winning twice. Herndon said early returns that only narrowly favored Woodward gave him confidence in the outcome.

Herndon ran alongside Jane Sauter and Rep. Cornel Rasor, giving Legislative District 1 a unified conservative slate for the first time in recent memory. Sauter defeated Rep. Mark Sauter — no relation — while Rasor, who won a narrow open-seat race in 2024, won reelection by a considerably larger margin this time.

Hard Work Rewarded, Outside Money Falls Short

Several lawmakers who won tight races two years ago were reelected decisively. Reps. Cornel Rasor, Kyle Harris, Steve Tanner, and Chris Bruce each expanded their margins compared to their 2024 performances. Harris, in particular, trailed in early returns but pulled ahead on Election Day despite substantial spending by outside PACs and interest groups backing his opponent, Michael Collins. Rep. Charlie Shepherd posted a 70% showing, a new high for him.

In Kootenai County, Rep. Elaine Price survived a close contest in early returns before building a comfortable lead on Election Day balloting. Colton Bennett claimed victory in District 6, a race he was denied in 2024 when a third candidate divided the vote.

Legislative Caucus Balance Shifts

The so-called “Gang of 8” — a bloc of moderate Republican lawmakers — suffered significant losses, with only three members surviving the primary. The Idaho Freedom Caucus, by contrast, held all of its contested seats and appears positioned to grow its numbers in the 2027 session, raising the question of whether the two conservative factions will eventually consolidate.

On immigration-related politics, Sen. Glenneda Zuiderveld, who had become a prominent figure in debates over agricultural labor and immigration enforcement, lost her primary. Guthrie and Mickelsen, who had opposed stricter immigration measures in the Legislature, both survived — a combination that observers say makes aggressive immigration legislation a lower priority for the upcoming session.

In District 8, Sen. Christy Zito held on against two challengers, but Rep. Faye Thompson was defeated by Brian Beckley, a former chair of the Idaho Department of Parks and Recreation who ran a well-funded campaign.

What Comes Next

With several of the primary’s competitive districts among the four in Idaho that feature contested general-election races between Republicans and Democrats, Tuesday’s results set the stage for fall campaigns in those seats. The reshaped Republican legislative caucus will have its first opportunity to coalesce — or compete for internal leadership — well before the 2027 session convenes.