Two competing sets of polling data are shaping dramatically different narratives in Idaho’s U.S. Senate race this fall, where Sen. Jim Risch, a Republican who has held the seat since 2009, faces an unusual challenge from Todd Achilles, a former state legislator running as an independent.

Achilles, who previously served in the Idaho Legislature as a Democrat before leaving the party, has argued the contest could be the most competitive Senate race in Idaho in nearly half a century. Whether that claim holds up depends heavily on which poll you consult.

Two Polls, Two Very Different Races

A survey commissioned by the Bulfinch Group found Achilles leading Risch in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, 38 percent to 33 percent, with 29 percent of respondents undecided. In a broader four-way field that includes Libertarian Matt Loesby and independent Natalie Fleming, the numbers tightened, with Risch at 34 percent, Achilles at 30 percent, Loesby at 4 percent, and roughly a third of voters still undecided.

Risch’s own campaign points to a different survey. Polling from Peak Insights placed Risch at 52 percent support compared to just 18 percent for Achilles, with Fleming at 9 percent and Loesby at 2 percent. The campaign also tested negative messaging about Achilles and found Risch’s number rose to 57 percent afterward.

Risch dismissed the opposition polling in remarks reported by eastidahonews.com. “They have been right smack on the money every single time,” he said of his internal pollsters. “So when they tell me I’m 34 points up, I’m 34 points up.”

Achilles Frames the Contest as a Referendum

Achilles has leaned into the anti-incumbent sentiment he sees building in the electorate, arguing his outsider status as an independent is an asset rather than a liability in a state that has long been reliably Republican at the federal level.

“Everybody is done with the status quo,” Achilles told eastidahonews.com. “This is the throw-the-bums-out year.”

Achilles, who teaches at the College of Idaho, Boise State University, and UC Berkeley, entered the race after the Democratic nominee, David Roth, dropped out. That departure effectively cleared the path for Achilles to position himself as the primary alternative to Risch without splitting the non-Republican vote with an official Democratic candidate.

Historical Comparisons

Achilles has compared this race to some of Idaho’s closest Senate contests on record. In 1980, Steve Symms defeated incumbent Frank Church by fewer than 4,000 votes — a margin of less than one percentage point — in one of the most stunning upsets in Idaho political history. Six years later, Symms held the seat against John Evans by approximately three percentage points.

Those remain the benchmarks for competitive Senate races in Idaho. Academic observers, including Charles Hunt and Jeffrey Lyons, both associate professors at Boise State University, and Edward Greer, a visiting professor at Idaho State University, are among those tracking the race, though the competing poll results make confident projections difficult.

What the Polls Don’t Resolve

The wide divergence between the Bulfinch and Peak Insights surveys underscores a fundamental challenge in assessing this race: the methodologies, sample sizes, and commissioning interests behind each poll differ, and Idaho’s political environment has not produced many genuinely close Senate contests in recent decades.

Risch, who has built a reputation in Washington for his work on foreign relations and financial legislation — including his role on the Digital Asset Clarity Act — remains the heavy favorite in most conventional assessments of the race. Idaho has not elected a non-Republican to the U.S. Senate since Church’s defeat in 1980.

With Roth out of the race and no major-party Democrat on the November ballot, the contest is shaping up as an unconventional general election matchup. Whether Achilles can consolidate enough voters across party lines to close a gap of the size Risch’s campaign claims, or whether the Bulfinch numbers more accurately reflect the current mood, will likely become clearer as fall approaches and more independent polling enters the field.